FRIDAY 11:30 PM UPDATE: I waited to post to see if today's openers would strengthen over the course of the day. Instead, they sank stiill further. Because based on 
today's numbers, Summer 2012 is clearly suffering a serious case of seasickness due to the constant up and down, up and down, motion of the North American box office. After the tsunami that was Marvel's The Avengers, five major studio movies disappointed. Then DreamWorks Animation's Madagascar 3 and Fox's Prometheus performed better than expected and are still easily holding #1 and #2 their second weekends with $33.5M and $20.5M respectively. (Even though the Ridley Scott scifi thriller dropped a whopping 72% from last Friday to today because of all those gaping plot holes.)
Contrast that with today's newcomers which each should have earned over $20M this weekend because of their star power. But New Line/Warner Bros' Rock Of Ages (3,470 theaters) is falling to earth with a thud. Which Hollywood expected because the pic had been tracking poorly for weeks (and even went down at one point week to week). The studio felt the 1980s period piece was a hard sell to younger moviegoers. I suspect the problem was casting. Russell Brand has been repellant to moviegoers, while Tom Cruise as iconic rocker proved just too incredulous for audiences. The PG-13 musical is looking to open to only $15.5M after taking in just $5.5M today. Given that the pic was based on the Broadway warbler, it did far worse than Mamma Mia which with the same pedigree opened to $27M. It cost $75M. Warner Bros was holding out hope, though, for a good CinemaScore that could result in great word of mouth and therefore great legs for the film. It didn't materialize: audiences only gave Rock Of Ages a mediocre 'B'. There's just no way to save this s(t)inker'
Columbia/Sony's That's My Boy (3,030 theaters) starring Adam Sandler also is bottoming. It will hurt further that audiences only gave it a 'B-' CinemaScore. ('But 'B's with everybody under 50,' a Sony exec emails me.) Hollywood didn't expect Sandler to attract his usual family friendly audience with an 'R' rating. But an actor who reliably takes in $30M to $40M every opening weekend dropping to $14M after grossing only $5M today can't go unchastized. Especially if he hurt his brand with his most recent pic, that execrable flop Jack & Jill. (How much you wanna bet Andy Samberg is rethinking that SNL exit now?)
Let's see if there's a late-night West Coast bump. Full analysis in the morning along with refined numbers. Overall moviegoing this weekend may be a dismal $125M, which is -15% even compared to last year when Green Lantern bombed. Here are the Top Ten for now based on Friday estimates:
1. Madagascar 3 (DreamWorks Anim/Paramount) Week 2 [4,263 Theaters] PG
Friday $9.9M (-52%), Weekend $33.5M, Cume $118.4M
2. Prometheus (Fox) Week 2 [3,442 Theaters] R
Friday $6M (-72M), Weekend $20.5M, Cume $89.1M
3. Rock Of Ages (New Line/Warner Bros) NEW [3,470 Theaters] PG13
Friday $5.5M, Weekend $15.5M
4. That's My Boy (Columbia/Sony) NEW [3,030 Theaters] R
Friday $5M, Weekend $14M
5. Snow White & The Huntsman (Universal) Week 3 [3,701 Theaters] PG13
Friday $3.9M, Weekend $12.5M, Cume $121.3M
6. Men In Black 3 (Columbia/Sony) Week 4 [3,135 Theaters] PG13
Friday $2.9M, Weekend $9.5M, Cume $152.2M
7. The Avengers (Marvel/Disney) Week 7 [2,582 Theaters] PG13
Friday $2.3M, Weekend $7.8M, Cume $585.7M
8. Best Exotic Marigold (Fox Searchlight) Week 7 [1,184 Theaters] PG13
Friday $675K, Weekend $2.3M, Cume $36.1M
9. Moonrise Kingdom () Week 4 [178 Theaters] PG13
Friday $625K, Weekend $2.0M, Cume $6.6M
10. What To Expect (Lionsgate) Week 5 [1,216 Theaters] PG13
Friday $500K, Weekend $1.5M, Cume $38.9M
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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