Best Ever 5-Day Thanksgiving Box Office? 'Rise Of The Guardians' Weakens On Holiday, 'Life Of Pi' Strengthens, 'Red Dawn' Slips; Holdovers Stay In Front ' 'Breaking Dawn 2' #1, 'Skyfall' #2, 'Lincoln' #3

FRIDAY 7:15 AM, 3RD UPDATE: (Thursday numbers below) In sharp contrast to Wednesday's rushing around, Thanksgiving Day was a slow and sleepy time in front of the tube with 3 (count 'em, 3) NFL games including one that went into overtime. But Hollywood is still confident this will be the biggest-ever moviegoing T-Day holiday weekend totaling $275M for the 5 days of domestic box office. That would smash 2009's record of $258.6M. 'Friday grosses will be huge and the best grossing day of the weekend,' one studio exec emailed me. Said another, 'This weekend has a chance to break the record.' Unfortunately, among newcomers, DreamWorks Animation's Rise Of The Guardians 3D fell -22% from Wednesday to Thursday. But even rival studios say the toon should come back very strong Friday. Nevertheless, this teaming up of fantasy characters from Santa zclause and the Easter Bunny to the Tooth Fairy distributed by Paramount is really underperforming and may not get much past $30M for the 5-day holiday. By contrast How To Train Your Dragon posted one of the slowest openings in DWA history and still eked out $43.7M for its 3-day non-holiday weekend. (These days successful toons open to at least $40+M.) Let's see if it can build momentum fter receiving a coveted 'A' CinemaScore from audiences. That should help word of mouth.

Twentieth Century Fox was thrilled its 3D Life Of Pi climbed a massive +24% from Wednesday to Thursday. 'Everyone had an extra helping of Pi because we are up more today than any other top film in the marketplace!' an exec gushed to me. PG pic received an 'A-' CinemaScore which should help keep it overperforming. Already it's jumped from 6th up to 4th place. The studio told me it would rejoice if director Ang Lee's Oscar-buzzed pet project opened over $20M and it's doing that. But the film was a costly $120M because of all that CGI. Exit polling shows the film is playing to a broad cross-section of moviegoers: 54% male and 46% female, 23% under age 18 and 38% under 25. Subject matter was far and away the primary driver for interest. I give the studio high marks for a compelling marketing campaign despite a hard-to-describe storyline.

FilmDistrict's Red Dawn dropped -22% from Wednesday to Thursday. This might mean it's slipping its tracking forcast after receiving only a so-so 'B' CinemaScore. Heck, it's a minor miracle that this remake is finally releasing since it was trapped so long in MGM's bankruptcy. Chris Hemsworth when cast was still an unknown but now is a huge action star: pic should only benefit from his career trajectory.

Among holdovers, this will be another great #1 weekend for Summit's Twilight Saga finale Breaking Dawn Part 2 as well as #2 for Eon Productions/MGM/Sony Pictures' James Bond #23 Skyfall and #3 for Steven Spielberg's Lincoln from DreamWorks/Fox/Disney. That biopic continues to find an audience ' amazingly ' in both red and blue states. The Weinstein Co's Oscar-buzzed Silver Linings Playbook is still on a slow rollout after Harvey changed the release strategy and had difficulty finding available art houses. But its per screen average needs to strengthen. Clearly the R rating puts off Jennifer Lawrence's younger female fans who are still Twilight Saga-obsessed. And Bradley Cooper is by no means a box office sure thing.

Here's the Top 10 based on Thursday estimates. I'll update each AM and PM along with a full analysis on Friday night. Hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving and check back for refined numbers.

1. Breaking Dawn Part 2 (Summit/Lionsgate) Week 1 [Runs 4,070] PG13
Wednesday $13.3M, Thursday $8.3M (-37%)
3-day Weekend $41.0M, 5-day Holiday $62.6M, Cume $225.6M

2. Skyfall (Eon/MGM/Sony) Week 2 [Runs 3,526] PG13
Wednesday $7.4M, Thursday $7.7M (+4%)
3-Day Weekend $32.6M, 5-Day Holiday $47.8M, Cume $218.4M

3. Lincoln (DreamWorks/Fox/Disney) Week 2 [Runs 2,018] PG13
Wednesday $4.2M, Thursday $4.8M (+16%)
3-Day Weekend $21.0M, 5-Day Holiday $30.1M, Cume $58.2M

4. Life Of Pi 3D (Fox) NEW [Runs 2,902] PG
Wednesday $3.6M, Thursday $4.5M (+24%)
3-Day Weekend $20.3M, 5-Day Weekend $28.4M

5. Rise Of The Guardians 3D (DreamWorks Anim/Par) NEW [Runs 3,653] PG
Wednesday $4.8M, Thursday $3.7M (-22%)
3-day Weekend $21.8M, 5-Day Holiday $30.4M

6. Red Dawn (Film District) NEW [Runs 2,679] PG13
Wednesday $4.2M, Thursday $3.2M (-22%)
3-Day Weekend $13.6M, 5-Day Holiday $21.0M

7. Wreck-It Ralph 3D (Disney) Week 3 [Runs 3,259] PG
Wednesday $3.7M, Thursday $2.4M (-33%)
3-Day Weekend $15.4M, 5-Day Holiday $21.6M, Cume $148.1M

8. Flight (Paramount) Week 3 [Runs 2,638] R
Wednesday $1.2M, Thursday $1.4M (+18%)
3-Day Weekend $6.4M, 5-Day Holiday $9.2M, Cume $72.7M

9. Silver Linings Playbook (Weinstein) NEW [Runs 367] R
Wednesday $656K, Thursday $612K (-8%)
3-Day Weekend $3.4M, 5-Day Holiday $4.6M, Cume $5.2M

10. Argo (Warner Bros) Week 6 [Runs 1,255] R
Wednesday $568K, Thursday $614K (+7%)
3-Day Weekend $2.5M, 5-day Holiday $3.7M, Cume $96.7M

For more estimates listed by title, see box office results here...

Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.

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