FRIDAY 11:15 PM, 6TH UPDATE: The domestic box office is exploding with 
early Fourth Of July fireworks with total moviegoing a blazing $205M which is +15% from last year. And R-rated raunch ruled today. Universal's Ted is wildly overperforming: $20.5M today for a $51M first weekend. 
The reprobate teddy bear is #1 and outgrossed Hangover today. Playing in 3,239 theaters, it could open the weekend as the biggest original R-rated comedy on record! (Remember, this is the movie that Twentieth Century Fox passed on ' even though Seth MacFarlane is BMOC at 20th TV and FBC and Mark Wahlberg has a growing list of hit movies.) Audiences gave Ted an 'A-' CinemaScore which ensures great word of mouth. The pic debuted with a stunningly strong $2.625M from midnight showings at 1,090 theaters. Seth MacFarlane has now made the successful transition to the big screen, while Mark Wahlberg cements his status as a major star. Ted was acquired by Universal from MRC for $69M and was made for $50M.
Also overperforming is Warner Bros' Magic Mike (2,930 theaters) which is looking at a great $18M opening today and $43M weekend. Domestic matinees for Magic Mike were especially 'crazy', rival studios told me. This is really reminding me and Hollywood of opening day for the first Sex And The City ' though hopefully not as frontloaded. (I loved Warner Bros' marketing line to women for Channing Tatum et al that 'on June 29th tell your boyfriend you're going to the book club'). Audiences gave Magic Mike a 'B' CinemaScore which won't hurt word of mouth. The male beefcake strippers movie directed by Steven Soderbergh took in a huge $2.050M from just one show at midnight in 1,100 locations. Chalk up another hit for new star Tatum but with a twist because he and Soderbergh funded the film themselves ' since Magic Mike is partly based on the actor's experiences as a Tampa stripper at age 19. And this was a low-cost acquisition of domestic rights for the studio for only a $7M investment. On Fandango and MovieTickets, the big online movie tickets sellers, Magic Mike was #1 going into today, representing 60+% of sales and outpacing Bridesmaids and Mamma Mia! at the same point in the sales cycle.
Hollywood thought Ted and Pixar/Disney's holdover Brave (4,164 theaters) would be fighting for #1 and between $30M-$35M this weekend. But, as one rival studio exec told me, the toon took a -57% Friday-to-Friday drop 'mainly because Mom said, 'Screw you. This is my night!' Look for Brave to recover because of the Saturday kiddie matinee bump. Magic Mike and Lionsgate's Tyler Perry film Madea's Witness Protection (2,161 theaters) were expected to battle for 3rd and low- to mid-$20sM. But that began changing hour by hour. 
Lionsgate's PG-13 Madea's Witness Protection from Tyler Perry as his stereotypical cross-dressing alter ego also is doing better than expected by aiming at $30M on this crowded weekend. Major help will be the 'A-' CinemaScore from audiences. (Why oh why haven't they had enough of Medea, pray tell?) Producer/director/star Perry plays 3 parts in this pic, which is 3 too many. Overlooked today is the debut of DreamWorks' PG-13 dramedy People Like Us (2,055 theaters) which distributor Disney always knew was a small movie unlikely to gross beyond single digits. Then why in heck release it in summer when this isn't another Hail Mary like The Help for struggling DreamWorks? But the 'B+' CinemaScore could generate modest word of mouth.
As for last week's major studio releases, Fox's Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter is down -69% Friday-to-Friday and is over and out. And New Line/Warner Bros' Rock Of Ages dropped -67% Friday to Friday and fell out of the Top Ten. Big flop, pending divorce: Tom Cruise is having a really bad week.
Here's the Top Ten based on Friday estimates. Full analysis in the morning:
1. Ted (Universal) NEW [3,239 Theaters] R
Friday $20.5M, Weekend $51.0M
2. Magic Mike (Warner Bros) NEW [2,930 Theaters] R
Friday $18.0M, Weekend $43.0M
3. Brave 3D (Pixar/Disney) Week 2 [4,164 Theaters] PG
Friday $10.5M (-57%), Weekend $35.5M, Cume $132.7M
4. Madea Witness Prot (Tyler Perry/Lionsgate) NEW [2,161 Theaters] PG13
Friday $10.2M, Weekend $26M
5. Madagascar 3 3D (DWA/Par) Week 4 [3,715 Theaters] PG
Friday $4.2M, Weekend $14.5M, Cume $181.7M
6. Lincoln: Vampire Hunter 3D (Fox) Week 2 [3,109 Theaters] R
Friday $1.9M (-69%), Weekend $6.2M, Cume $29.3M
7. Moonrise Kingdom (Focus) Week 6 [854 Theaters] PG13
Friday $1.7M, Weekend $5.5M, Cume $18.9M
8. People Like Us (DreamWorks/Disney) NEW [2,055 Theaters] PG13
Friday $1.5M, Weekend $4.2M
9. Prometheus 3D (Fox) Week 4 [1,951 Theater] R
Friday $1.4M, Weekend $4.7M, Cume $118.0M
10. Snow White & The Huntsman (Universal) Week 5 [2,337 Theaters] PG13
Friday $1.2M, Weekend $3.9M, Cume $145.1M
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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