Related: 'Dark Knight Rises' Worldwide Total Now $374M: 25% Of Moviegoers Still Very Hesitant This Weekend
SATURDAY AM, 2ND UPDATE: Pardon my brief absence. I took a blissful Friday off at the start of what was sure to be a downer of a moviegoing weekend. And it is. This Friday-Sunday is adding up to not a lot more than $120M, which is -30% from last year. What's normally one of the best moviegoing weekends of the summer is shaping up to be one of the worst. Lack of must-see pics, the rivalry of the London Olympics opening ceremonies and games, and the awful aftermath of the Colorado theater shooting just aren't good news for any Hollywood studio. (And don't think for a minute that Twentieth Century Fox bigwigs aren't using these excuses as cover') 'Hopefully next week, also one of the best of the summer, everything bounces back,' an exec emailed me. But reality bites: both new movies didn't fare well in Friday late night shows. Summit Entertainment's PG-13 global dance franchise Step Up Revolution earned a 'B+' from audiences which should help word of mouth, while Twentieth Century Fox's R-rated comedy The Watch received only a 'C+' so the wanna-see will be limited. Neither pic could top $5M Friday, while Warner Bros' and Legendary Pictures' The Dark Knight Rises remained #1 even though it dropped a surprisingly hefty 76% from its opening a week ago. This threequel is still trailing Christopher Nolan's second franchise installment The Dark Knight in grosses. To be expected since NRG research currently showing that 20%-25% of the domestic moviegoing audience is still very hesitant to go this weekend because of the Colorado theater shooting. Warner Bros this morning is claiming TDKR's $18M Friday is 'right on target' given the $30M midnights in shows a week ago. 'We were actually off 61% from last Friday's $45M which was even better then most of the big blockbusters that opened with huge midnight shows.'
Though these two stars made moolah together in the PG-13 Dodgeball more than a decade ago, 2011 ensemble movies starring Vince Vaughn (The Dilemma) and Ben Stiller (Tower Heist) individually underperformed, and that trend continues in 2012 with this latest reteaming. Then again, this pic couldn't catch a break: even before the Colorado killings, Florida's hot button Trayvon Martin-George Zimmerman tragedy necessitated a last-minute name change after the neighborhood watch image became no laughing matter. ('Obviously that situation is a horrible event in its own right,' a Fox exec told me, 'but this movie is a broad comedy that bears no relation to that tragedy, other than originally having the title, Neighborhood Watch. That was a funny title that conveyed the movie. Until Zimmerman came on the scene. Then it was not funny at all any more. Now that people have seen the film, it's clear there is no connection, but we were sensitive to any perceived link.') The studio also pulled the pic's promotional materials and sanitized its trailers after both events. Right before release, the Harkins Theatre chain pulled about 29 venues at the last minute when it couldn't agree on financial terms with Fox. And don't forget that star-driven movies for the most part are sucking the big one this summer so the studio didn't expect more than a $15M opening ' and didn't get one. Fox claims The Watch which was shot in Atlanta cost $68 million. Publicity was straightforward with the guys primarily making appearances on talks shows and doing other TV press. Pic was produced by Shawn Levy and directed by Akiva Schaffer, with the credited screenwriters Jared Stern and Seth Rogen & Evan Goldberg.
As for Miami-set Step Up Revolution, that too was projected downward by the studio ' and not just because of the absence of Channing Tatum's 8-pack abs. Summit met, discussed, but left in the film an Aurora-offensive scene where the dancers steal into a party wearing body vests and gas masks and use gas grenades to threaten the guests. (It was the media talk on Twitter after the press screenings.) Summit did remove TV ads showcasing the scene, and isn't rotating a trailer using the scene, either. Note this franchise does more biz overseas then domestic. (The second installment internationally grossed close to double its cumulative domestic take, and the third film cumulatively grossed nearly triple abroad compared to North American business.) Here in North America, of its 2,567 theaters, about 90% this weekend will present this fourth film in 3D. Summit has taken the reins from Disney on both the domestic and international release of the film. (The previous 3 installments were distributed domestically by Disney, while Summit has always overseen international distribution). The film's budget is $33 million with the studio possessing very limited exposure due to robust foreign pre-sales. Marketing was aimed at tween/teen girls, but also Latinos and African-Americans with TV spots on 21 cable channels including Univision, Telemundo and BET. Small screen media was compressed into the last 2 weeks prior to opening, with almost half running this week after The Dark Knight Rises opened. A Step Up marathon on ABC Family showcased the previous three films. And not only was the soundtrack debuted this week on Interscope Records, but a music video by Jennifer Lopez featuring Flo Rida, launched globally on MTV this past Wednesday, and a video by Timbaland, featuring Ne-Yo, launched with heavy support from VEVO. The film's dancers and choreographers did extensive touring, performing flash mobs, and participating in press days in the top 20 markets. Directed by Scott Speer from credited screenwriters Jenny Mayer and Duane Adler, the film was produced by former Summit-only execs Erik Feig and Patrick Wachsberger as well as Adam Shankman.
Here's the Top Ten based on Friday estimates:
1. The Dark Knight Rises (Legendary/Warner Bros) Week 2 [4,404 Runs] PG13
Friday $18.0M (-76%), Weekend $55.0M, Cume $278.0M
2. Step Up Revolution 3D (Summit/Lionsgate) NEW [2,567 Runs) PG13
Friday $5.0M, Weekend $12.0M
3. The Watch (Fox) NEW 3,168 Runs) R
Friday $4.5M, Weekend $14.0M
4. Ice Age 4 3D (Fox) Week 3 [3,869 Runs) PG
Friday $4.1M, Weekend $12.8M, Cume $114.0M
5. Ted (Universal) Week 5 [3,129 Runs) R
Friday $2.1M, Weekend $6.4M, Cume $192.5M
6. The Amazing Spider-Man 3D (Col/Sony) Week 4 [3,160 Run]
Friday $1.8M, Weekend $6.2M, Cume $241.1M
7. Brave 3D (Pixar/Disney) Week 6 [2,551 Runs] PG
Friday $1.2M, Weekend $3.7M, Cume $216.7M
8. Magic Mike (Warner Bros) Week 5 [2,075 Runs] R
Friday $800K, Weekend $2.2M, Cume $107.2M
9. Savages (Universal) Week 4 [1,414 Runs] R
Friday $480K, Weekend $1.5M, Cume $43.6M
10. Madea's Witness Protection (TPerry/Lionsgate) Week 5 [1,111 Runs] PG13
Friday $400K, Weekend $1.2M, Cume $62.6M
Related: Harkins Theatres Won't Play 'The Watch' After No Financial Agreement With Fox
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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