SATURDAY 9:45 PM, 5TH UPDATE: Universal's The Bourne Legacy ' $40M weekend. Warner Bros' The Campaign ' $27.5M. Sony Pictures' Hope Springs ' $14.5M. Full analysis coming'
SATURDAY 9 AM, 4TH UPDATE: Universal's domestic weekend estimate for #1 The Bourne Legacy keeps dropping, from $48M midday Friday to $44M last night to now $41M this morning. And 
Friday's figure has fallen from $15M to $14M. Which is cause for concern. Especially for a reboot that cost $125+M, is opening much lower than the last two original Bourne movies with Matt Damon, and has a star like Jeremy Renner without a proven track record at the international box office. Although the studio went into this weekend lowballing expectations around $35M, the real figure Universal wanted was $40M-$45M.
Warner Bros' #2 The Campaign also lowered its Friday opener from $11M to $10.2M, which puts its weekend estimate at $26.8M. The studio's #3 The Dark Knight Rises dipped slightly to $5.6M and an estmated weekend of $19.7M. Sony Pictures' midweek newcomer Hope Springs drops to a weekend estimate of $14.0M and cume of $18.5M after revising Friday's figure down to $4.6M. Full analysis and more refined numbers later today.
FRIDAY PM/SATURDAY AM, 3RD UPDATE: All Friday I hadn't heard Hollywood this encouraged about the domestic box office since The Avengers or Ted opened. Let's face it: every studio this summer is making the vast majority of money off the international grosses. So to have North America back in business was helping mop up mogul flopsweat. But strong matinees and early evening shows gave way last night to emptier late shows, unfortunately. 'Daytime business was fabulous. But everything after 10 PM wasn't,' a studio exec tells me. 'Even exhibition is saying that fewer people are going to late night shows.' Theories abound, like Aurora or the Olympics. The result is that some of Friday's earlier revved-up forecasts slowed. This may still be a rare 'up' total weekend of $150M.
Here's the Top Ten based on Friday estimates:
1. Universal's gamble is paying off - not just launching PG-13 The Bourne Legacy (3,745 theaters) without Matt Damon or the title character, but also delaying a week to avoid a head-to-head battle with Sony Pictures' Total Recall. This latest high-octaine Bourne actioner ' written and directed by Tony Gilroy and starring Jeremy Renner ' looks to open better than the studio expected with $15M Friday and $44M for the weekend. Sure that's less than the franchise's second and third installments The Bourne Supremacy ($52.5M in 2004) and The Bourne Ultimatum ($69.3M in 2007). And even The Bourne Legacy's $542K from midnight showings was less than The Bourne Ultimatum's $797K midnights. But this is one of those rare series that earned more with each outing after 2002's The Bourne Identity debuted to $27.1M. And consider this: how many franchises can continue without the title character and reinvent themselves? Plus the way Renner's character was introduced ('There was never just one') neatly allows for Damon to return. Or at the very least for another new lead to be introduced. All in all, a nice triple that still keeps the pic in play. Audiences gave The Bourne Legacy a 'B' CinemaScore which should be neutral for word of mouth.
Related: Mike Fleming's Q&A With 'Bourne Legacy' Helmer Tony Gilroy
2. Also faring well is Warner Bros R-rated political comedy The Campaign (3,204 theaters) from Will Ferrell's and Adam McKay's Gary Sanchez Productions. Audiences love summer laughers, sometimes the stupider the better. (That scene where Ferrell punches the baby was priceless') So The Campaign hit fewer funny bones than hoped according to its 'B-' CinemaScore from audiences and that may hurt word of mouth. It opened with $11M Friday and likely $29M this weekend. 'That included a very strong $625K from midnight showings beating all the comps,' Warner Bros told me.
3. Warner Bros'/Legendary Pictures' PG-13 The Dark Knight Rises (3,690 theaters, Week 4) is third atop the box office with $5.8M Friday and probably $20M for the weekend and a giant $390.6M cume.
4. Sony Pictures opened Meryl Streep's latest adult fare Hope Springs midweek (2,361 theaters, Week 1) to get out in front of this weekend's clutter. Good strategy because it posted numbers bigger than the studio's Total Recall ' $2.2M Wednesday and $2.1M Thursday. It's doing $5M Friday and likely $15.5M this weekend if there's the expected adult bump on Saturday. Its possible 5-day cume will be near $20M.
5. Holdover Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: Dog Days (3,398 theaters, Week 2) from Fox hangs in for $3.2M Friday and likely about $9M for the weekend and a soft cume $31.3M.
6. Sony Pictures' Total Recall (3,601 theaters, Week 2) fell -71% from Friday to Friday ' way more than the studio hoped. The PG-13 holdover made $2.6M Friday and likely $8.5M for the weekend with a weak $44.6M cume.
7. Fox's PG-rated Ice Age 4 (3,103 theaters, Week 5) tallied $2.1M Friday and likely $7.2M for the weekend with a $144.5 cume. It's now Fox´s biggest film of all time in Latin America beating Avatar.
8. Lionsgate/Summit Entertainment's PG-13 Step Up Revolution (1,898 theaters, Week 3) made $1.1M Friday and $3.4M weekend with a $30.7M cume.
9. Universal's R-rated Ted (2,208 theaters, Week 7) took in $1.0K Friday and probably a $3.5M weekend for a $210.1M cume.
10. Hard to tell. Could be Sony Pictures' PG-13 The Amazing Spider-Man (1,585 theaters, Week 6) or could be Fox's R-rated comedy The Watch (2,463 theaters, Week 3) because they both tallied around $650K Friday and should come in for between $2.0M-$2.4M this weekend. Of course the Spidey reboot has a huge $255.8 cume while The Watch only $31.2M.
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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