FRIDAY 10 PM UPDATE: A lot is riding on this weekend's worldwide totals for Will Smith (back at cineplexes after a 4-year hiatus) and Sony Pictures (reviving a decade-long dormant franchise). Yes, Sony's new #1 Memorial Weekend movie Men In Black 3 will beat Marvel's The Avengers which is starting its 4th week in domestic release. But I can't ignore rival studio claims that the 3D scifi laugher is not looking as strong as Hollywood thought for North America or overseas. At first this just seemed to be sour grapes. But now it's clear that Barry Sonnenfeld's/Rick Baker's latest playing in very wide release at 4,248 
theaters looks to open in the range of $18M today and only $75M for the 4-day holiday. That's not anywhere close to the $90M which Hollywood thought this popular franchise could open its threequel. This makes the 5th major studio release that has underperformed at the start of Summer 2012, though not as badly as the others. Even overseas, depending on who's analyzing, MIB3 is a mixed bag. My Sony sources are quick to point out that it opened bigger in Russia than The Avengers. But rival studios tell me that 'despite great tracking internationally, their midweek openings in Australia, France, Korea, and Germany are mostly behind Battleship or John Carter. Weird.' Those are two comps which no studio wants to hear in the same sentence with its summer blockbuster. The reason this is a problem is that MIB3 was very expensive to make. The time travel elements of Etan Cohen's script had to be re-worked by Jeff Nathanson who needed more time to pull off the tricky plot device. So the film shut down for about six weeks, which is a rarity for a major tentpole. That caused the cost to skyrocket from a range of $225M (which is what Sony claims as the budget) to $300M (which is what rival studios say it really was). Between that and all the gross profit participants, every dollar counts.
Overseas, Sony claimed 'some fantastic new openings around the world, led by Russia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia. Highlights: Russia was 'a sensational, dominant #1 opening grossing $3.5M, accounting for 85% of the box office. This is bigger than the opening day of Avengers and is Sony's biggest opening day of all time.' In line with Russia's opening, Ukraine scored a big $314K and headed to finish with 3 times the opening weekend box office of Mission: Impossible 4. United Arab Emirates took in $427K, tracking 50% above Will Smith's Hancock. Latin America also tracked ahead of M:I4's opening weekend with the big markets of Brazil and Mexico opening tonight. Yesterday Argentina took in $217K, Peru $134K, and Chile $62K. In Asia, Sony had strong openings in Malaysia $369K, Hong Kong $341K, and Singapore $290K which should end up above M:I4 as well as Pirates 4 come Sunday.
Tonight Sony doesn't sound worried. 'All around the world, the feeling is there is a big family audience which will be coming out over the weekend. While Western Europe continues to work to overcome some beautiful weather, we have the benefit of a holiday on Monday in various markets which should help boost our Sunday results there.' As for North America, 'Give us sometime to breathe here and wait for the kids to come out. Today will be good but Sat-Sun-Mon great.' MIB3 will be helped by good word of mouth with audiences giving it a 'B+' CinemaScore ('A-' from those under age 18).
Holdover The Avengers (3,918 theaters) is a solid #2 with about $9.5M today and $45M this 4-day weekend as the Disney movie's foreign gross hits $752M foreign and $478M domestic coming into this weekend for a global cume of $1.2B. High hopes for writer/producer Oren Peli and his Paranormal Activity-pedigreed horror newcomer Chernobyl Diaries (2,433 theaters) deflated a bit with a dreaded 'D+' CinemaScore from audiences. But tonight Alcon Entertainment's genre acquisition according to distributor Warner Bros should open to $3.5M this weekend. Other studios are predicting less and agree on a mediocre $11.5M for the weekend. It made more than Universal's Battleship (3,702 theaters) today sinking -69% from a week ago and Paramount's disappointing holdover The Dictator (3,014 theaters).
Here's the Top Ten (based on Friday estimates). Full analysis in the AM:
1. Men in Black 3 3D (Columbia/Sony) NEW [4,248 Theaters] PG13
Friday $18M, 4-Day Weekend $75M
2. Marvel's The Avengers 3D (Disney) Week 4 [3,918 Theaters] PG13
Friday $9.5M, 4-Day Weekend $45M, Cume $523.5M
3. Chernobyl Diaries (Alcon/Warner Bros) NEW [2,433
Theaters] R
Friday $3.5M, 4-Day Weekend $11.5M
3. Battleship (Universal) Week 2 [3,702 Theaters] PG13
Friday $2.8M (-69%), 4-Day Weekend $13.5M, Cume $43.3M
5. The Dictator (Paramount) Week 2 [3,014 Theaters] R
Friday $2.6M (-53%), 4-Day Weekend $11.5M, Cume $43.3M
6. Dark Shadows 3D (Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,404 Theaters] PG13
Friday $2.1M, 4-Day Weekend $9.5M, Cume $65.0M
7. What To Expect When You're Expecting (Lionsgate) Week 2 [3,021
Theaters] PG13
Friday $2.1M (-43%), 4-Day Weekend $9.0M, Cume $24.0M
8. Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight) Week 4 [1,233
Theaters] PG13
Friday $1.8M, 4-Day Weekend $9.0M, Cume $17.9M
9. The Hunger Games (Lionsgate) Week 10 [1,421 Theaters] PG13
Friday $625K, 4-Day Weekend $2.7M, Cume $395.7M
10. Think Like A Man (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 6 [786 Theaters] PG13
Friday$450K, 4-Day Weekend $2.0M, Cume $88.9M
FRIDAY AM: This will be the first weekend in a month that Marvel's The Avengers has not dominated North American box office as #1. Instead, Sony Pictures' Men in Black 3 is anticipated to top today at a giant release in 4,248 runs for the start of Memorial Weekend as Will Smith returns to the cineplex after a long hiatus. This is his first major starring role in four years, and what could have been a tired franchise was freshened by a time travel plot and Josh Brolin. The studio just announced the scifi comedy made $1.5M for its first midnight showings in 2,233 locations calling it 'Good. Expect a big day today, and kids to drive a huge Saturday-Sunday-Monday.' Hollywood believes the popular laugher can scare up as much as $80M-$90M domestic and north of $200M worldwide for the four-day holiday. Meanwhile Alcon Entertainment's horror genre acquisition Chernobyl Diaries distributed domestically by Warner Bros posted a larger than expected midnight opening with $525K from 1,325 locations. 'This result is at the very high end of all horror comps,' an exec emailed me. 'Stay tuned' It could beat tracking for the weekend.' Immediately Hollywood began revising up its $15M estimates for the film whose theater count is 2,433 this weekend.
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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