'Die Hard 5' Winning Presidents Weekend; 'Safe Haven' Takes Valentines Day; 'Escape Planet Earth' & 'Beautiful Creatures' Bomb

SATURDAY 1:30 AM, 6TH UPDATE: As expected Twentieth Century Fox's critically panned A Good Day To Die Hard (3,552 theaters) is winning the 4-day Presidents Day weekend. While Relativity's critically panned romantic drama Safe Haven (3,223 theaters) took Valentines Day. Newly released Friday is The Weinstein Company's critically panned PG toon Escape From Planet Earth (3,288 theaters) which came in 4th Friday and should finish in that order through Monday. Warner Bros' Beautiful Creatures (2,950 theaters) was #6 and continues to be a huge disappointment. Overall it's turning into a decent moviegoing holiday. Just wish the pics were better. Refined numbers and full analysis later Saturday.

Here's the Top Ten based on Friday estimates:

1. Good Day To Die Hard (Fox) Week 1 [Runs 3,552] R
Thursday $8.2M, Friday $7.6M (-8%)
4-Day Weekend $29.5M, 5-Day Holiday $37.3M

2. Safe Haven (Relativity) Week 1 [Runs 3,223] PG13
Thursday $8.8M, Friday $7.4M ('16%),
4-Day Weekend $26.5M, 5-Day Holiday $35.0M

3. Identity Thief (Universal) Week 2 [Runs 3,165] R
Thursday $5.3M, Friday $7.0M
4-Day Holiday $26.5M, Cume $73.7M

4. Escape From Planet Earth (Weinstein) NEW [Runs 3,288] PG
Friday $3.6M
4-Day Holiday $21.0M

5. Warm Bodies (Summit/Lionsgate) Week 3 [Runs 2,897] PG13
Thursday $2.5M, Friday $2.7M
4-Day Holiday $10.5M, Cume $51.7M

6. Beautiful Creatures (Warner Bros) Week 1 [Runs 2,950] PG13
Thursday $2.5M, Friday $2.4M (-6%)
4-day Weekend $9.0M, 5-Day Holiday $11.5M

7. Side Effects (Open Road) Week 2 [Runs 2,605] R
Thursday $1.2M, Friday $1.6M,
4-Day Weekend $7.5M, Cume $20.3M

8. Silver Linings Playbook (Weinstein) Week 14 [Runs 2,202] R
Thursday $1.2M, Friday $1.5M
4-Day Weekend $7.0M, Cume $100M

9. Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters (Par) Week 4 [Runs 2,103] R
Thursday $895K, Friday $800K
4-Day Weekend $3.6M, Cume $49.8M

10. Mama (Universal) Week 5 [Runs 1,648] PG13
Thursday $725K, Friday $700K
4-Day Weekend $3.0M, Cume $68.5M

7:45 AM, 5TH UPDATE: Valentine's Day numbers are differing widely among my sources. But both Fox's critically panned Bruce Willis franchise A Good Day To Die Hard (3,552 theaters) and Relativity's critically panned romantic drama Safe Haven (3,223 theaters) 'performed well' even according to rival studios. And both earned 'B+' CinemaScores from audiences which should help word of mouth. As expected, romance author Nicholas Sparks won Valentine's Day with $8.9M. Close behind, because when you think of romance you think of the Die Hard franchise, is the Bruce Willis actioner with around $8.1M. But it should win the long 5-day Presidents Day weekend. Universal's holdover Identity Thief will be #3 with around $5.3M. Summit Entertainment/Lionsgate's two week old Warm Bodies became #4 with around $2.5M. And, to complete the Top Five, Thursday's third opener was Warner Bros' Beautiful Creatures (2,950 theaters) which earned a 'B' CinemaScore from audiences and opened with a disappointing $2.5M.

Valentine's Day is always a huge moviegoing event ' 2012's was a $30 million Tuesday - and this year's began auspiciously enough with $840K in Wednesday midnights for A Good Day To Die Hard from 2,328 locations. That's a gift for Twentieth Century Fox and the fifth installment of its 25-year-old franchise tracking strongest with older males. At a cost of $92 million, Willis plays John McClane again who travels to rescue to rescue his CIA operative son played by Jai Courtney, an Australian rising star who just starred with Tom Cruise in Jack Reacher and is on lotsa lists. 'We're thrilled with the number especially for a Wednesday eve in February,' a Fox exec told me Thursday morning. They should be: reviews for this R-rated actioner directed by John Moore were absolutely awful ' only 13% positive on Rotten Tomatoes. ('What reviews? There are reviews on this movie?,' the Fox exec laughed. 'The reports we got from late night shows were people cheering and clapping and just rolling with the movie the way you would expect.')

Internationally, 126 markets have or will be releasing  (The major markets not releasing day and date with the U.S. are Australia, Brazil, France, China, and India.) Grosses abroad for A Good Day To Die Hard are currently at a strong $16.5M from the eight Asia Pacific markets released last weekend. It took advantage of the Chinese New Year holiday which began Sunday, a time audiences flock to cinemas.

The only movie with worse reviews was the Lasse Hallstrom-directed Safe Haven which limped to 11% RT positive. Still the PG-13 romantic tearjerker ' yet another one from Sparks (The Notebook, Dear John) ' was expected to win Valentine's Day even if Josh Duhamel doesn't have the sex appeal of Channing Tatum or the acting chops of Ryan Gosling. But Fox is confident that Die Hard 5 will win the weekend. Last time around, 2007's Live Free Or Die Hard opened on a Wednesday and earned $48.3M for the 5-day weekend and $33.3M for the Friday through Sunday. This time around, the studio is expecting $40M for the 5-day holiday through Presidents Day and $28M for the Friday through Sunday. But Hollywood thinks the long weekend number could get to $45M-$50M if the reviews don't hurt its box office too badly. Safe Haven should finish around $25M through Monday.

Lagging both openers today was Warner Bros' Beautiful Creatures. Scripted and directed by Richard LaGravenese, this tween/teen goth romantic fantasy tried to capitalize on the Twilight target audience addicted to the book series ' in this case, the first in the Caster Chronicles novels by Kami Garcia and Margaret Stohl. But the filmmakers then altered it, so fans stayed away. As a result, this PG-13 pic with 48% RT positive will underperform the holiday weekend with less than $20M.

For more estimates listed by title, see box office results here...

Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.

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