'Die Hard 5' Winning Presidents Weekend: Will 'Identity Thief' Steal #1? 'Safe Haven' Fades After Valentines Day, 'Escape Planet Earth' Weak, 'Beautiful Creatures' Bombs

SUNDAY 6 AM, 7TH UPDATE: This is a surprise: Presidents Weekend is now turning into a cliffhanger. Twentieth Century Fox's critically panned A Good Day To Die Hard (3,552 theaters) went up more than +45% from Friday to Saturday and is still expected to win the 4-day holiday. But Universal thinks its 2nd place holdover, the Melissa McCarthy-Jason Bateman frenemy comedy Identity Thief, can give it a run for its money. 'It's holding extremely well,' a Universal exec tells me. 'To think we could even scare a #1 film is a great accomplishment.' This could come down to Monday's grosses before #1 is assured. There was another holiday to score: Valentine's Day, always a huge moviegoing event. (2012's was a $30 million Tuesday.) Thursday was won by Relativity's critically panned romantic drama Safe Haven (3,223 theaters) - even though it was worse reviewed than Die Hard 5 with only 11% positive on Rotten Tomatoes. The Lasse Hallstrom-directed PG-13 pic has been fading since VDay. Maybe because this latest tearjerker adapted from romance novelist Nicholas Sparks (The Notebook, Dear John) starred Josh Duhamel who doesn't have the sex appeal of Channing Tatum or the acting chops of Ryan Gosling. Alliance Films is distributing in Canada.

Both Die Hard 5 and Safe Haven earned 'B+' CinemaScores from audiences to help word of mouth. Bruce et al was #2 on Valentines Day because, when you think of romance, you think of the 25-year-old Die Hard franchise. It earned a solid $840K in Wednesday midnights from 2,328 locations. That was a gift for Twentieth Century Fox's 5th installment costing $92 million and tracking strongest with older males. Willis plays John McClane again who travels to rescue to rescue his CIA operative son played by Jai Courtney, an Australian rising star who just starred with Tom Cruise in Jack Reacher and is on lotsa lists. Fox shrugged off the awful reviews ' only 13% positive on Rotten Tomatoes ' for this R-rated actioner directed by John Moore, scripted by Skip Woods, and produced by Alex Young and Wyck Godfrey. ('What reviews? There are reviews on this movie?,' a Fox exec laughed. 'The reports we got from late night shows were people cheering and clapping and just rolling with the movie the way you would expect.') But grosses were less than expected. Last time around, 2007's Live Free Or Die Hard opened on a Wednesday and earned $48.3M for the 5 days and $33.3M for the 3 day weekend. Abroad, 126 markets have or will be releasing  (The major markets not day and date with the U.S. are Australia, Brazil, France, China, and India.) Overseas totaled a strong $16.5M from the eight Asia Pacific markets released last weekend. Pic took advantage of the Chinese New Year holiday, a time audiences flock to cinemas.

As for Friday's release, The Weinstein Company's critically panned PG toon Escape From Planet Earth (3,288 theaters), it came in 4th Friday and had a major bump in business Saturday (+82%) and should keep its placing through Monday. The film was directed by Cal Brunker and stars the voices of Rob Cordry, Brendon Frasier, Jessica Alba, Sofia Vergara, George Lopez, Craig Robinson, Jane Lynch, and Sarah Jessica Parker. Weinstein execs keep telling me it's not a bomb because it cost 'only' $40 million and they spent $30M to open. 'If the numbers hold up, we will be in really good shape,' a TWC exec insists. On what planet? The $70M pic may earn no more than $21M this 4-day holiday even though there's been nothing fresh in the family marketplace for weeks and most toons do $35M-40M on a 3-day weekend. With no new kid films for the next few weeks, let's see what the multiple turns out to be.

Warner Bros' Beautiful Creatures (2,950 theaters) opened Thursday as a huge disappointment and is staying in 6th place for now after its 'B' CinemaScore. Scripted and directed by Richard LaGravenese, this PG-13 tween/teen goth romantic fantasy tried to capitalize on the Twilight target audience addicted to the book series ' in this case, the first in the Caster Chronicles novels by Kami Garcia and Margaret Stohl. The marketing focused on attracting the young adult core and its legions of dedicated readers, introducing them to the pic's stars, emphasizing social media ' from Instagram-released production photography to Facebook-hosted set visit contests to extensive Twitter-based interviews with younger talent as well as two extensive national mall tours. But none of this could overcome the fact that the filmmakers altered the book, which annoyed fans who stayed away from the movie version.

Overall it's a good moviegoing weekend but not a great one, even though this holiday is usually one of the hottest domestic. If only these pics had been better. The 3-day Friday through Sunday total gross is around $142M while the 4-day holiday should be around $169M, or down -13% from last year. Here's the Top Ten based on 3-day weekend estimates:

1. Good Day To Die Hard (Fox) Week 1 [Runs 3,552] R
Thursday $8.2M, Friday $7.2M (-8%), Saturday $10.1M (+42%)
3-Day Weekend $24.9M, 4-Day Holiday $28.2M, 5-Day Holiday $36.4M

2. Identity Thief (Universal) Week 2 [Runs 3,165] R
Thursday $5.3M, Friday $6.5M, Saturday $9.9M
3-Day Weekend $23.4M (-32%), 4-Day Holiday $27.6M, Cume $74.9M

3. Safe Haven (Relativity) Week 1 [Runs 3,223] PG13
Thursday $8.8M, Friday $7.1M, Saturday $8.4M
3-Day Weekend $21.5M, 4-Day Holiday $25.4M, 5-Day Holiday $34.3M

4. Escape From Planet Earth (Weinstein) NEW [Runs 3,288] PG
Friday $3.7M, Saturday $6.6M
3-Day Weekend $15.8M, 4-Day Holiday $20.5M

5. Warm Bodies (Summit/Lionsgate) Week 3 [Runs 2,897] PG13
Thursday $2.5M, Friday $2.6M, Saturday $3.6M
3-Day Weekend $9.1M, 4-Day Holiday $10.9M, Cume $52.1M

6. Beautiful Creatures (Warner Bros) Week 1 [Runs 2,950] PG13
Thursday $2.5M, Friday $2.3M, Saturday $3.0M
3-Day Weekend $7.4M, 4-Day Holiday $8.5M, 5-Day Holiday $11.1M

7. Side Effects (Open Road) Week 2 [Runs 2,605] R
Thursday $1.2M, Friday $1.7M, Saturday $2.6M
3-Day Weekend $6.3M, 4-Day Holiday $7.3M, Cume $19.6M

8. Silver Linings Playbook (Weinstein) Week 14 [Runs 2,202] R
Thursday $1.2M, Friday $1.4M, Saturday $2.5M
3-Day Weekend $5.9M, 4-Day Holiday $7.2M, Cume $99.6M

9. Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters (Par) Week 4 [Runs 2,103] R
Thursday $895K, Friday $871K, Saturday $1.4M
3-Day Weekend $3.4M, 4-Day Holiday $4.0M, Cume $50.2M

10. Zero Dark Thirty (Annapurna/Sonyl) Week 9 [Runs 1,522] R
Thursday $401K, Friday $675K, Saturday $1.2M
3-Day Weekend $2.9M, 4-Day Holiday $3.5M, Cume $85.4M

For more estimates listed by title, see box office results here...

Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.

Get Deadline news and alerts FREE to your inbox...