Saturday, November 24, 2012

Fantastic Friday Grosses Guarantee Best-Ever Thanksgiving 5-Day Box Office! 'Rise Of The Guardians' +149%, 'Life Of Pi' +97%, 'Red Dawn' +88%; Holdovers Still In Front ' 'Breaking Dawn 2' #1-'Skyfall' #2-'Lincoln' #3

SATURDAY 7:30 AM, 5TH UPDATE: (Friday numbers below) Friday was a fantastic day at the box office. 'If all of these numbers hold true, this will be a monster Thanksgiving weekend ' significantly up from the past,' one movie exec tells me. In sharp contrast to Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day grosses, domestic box office went into overdrive. So Hollywood is now certain this will be the biggest-ever moviegoing T-Day holiday: $287M for the 5 days of domestic box office, smashing 2009's record of $258.6M. I don't wanna hear these studios plead poverty to the Hollywood community anymore. ('We have no complaints,' responded one studio bigwig.)

Unfortunately, among newcomers, DreamWorks Animation's Rise Of The Guardians 3D fell -22% from Wednesday to Thursday. But the toon came back very strong Friday: +149%. Nevertheless, this teaming up of fantasy characters from Santa Claus to the Easter Bunny to the Tooth Fairy distributed by Paramount is really underperforming and may not even get past $32M for the 5-day holiday. By contrast How To Train Your Dragon posted one of the slowest openings in DWA history and still eked out $43.7M for its 3-day non-holiday weekend. (These days successful toons open to at least $40+M.) Let's see if Guardians can build more momentum from its coveted 'A' CinemaScore. That should help word of mouth.

Twentieth Century Fox was thrilled its 3D Life Of Pi climbed a massive +24% from Wednesday to Thursday - up more than any other top film in the marketplace. Then it went up +97% Friday, prompting a studio exec to gush, 'The good news keeps coming at you like a hungry Richard Parker!' This PG pic received an 'A-' CinemaScore which is keeping it overperforming. The studio told me it would rejoice if director Ang Lee's Oscar-buzzed pet project opened over $20M and it's doing that. But at a costly $120M because of all that CGI. Exit polling shows it's playing to a broad cross-section of moviegoers: 54% male and 46% female, 23% under age 18 and 38% under 25. Subject matter was far and away the primary driver for interest. I give Fox high marks for a compelling marketing campaign despite a hard-to-describe storyline.

FilmDistrict's Red Dawn dropped -22% from Wednesday to Thursday but recovered +88% Friday. It's slipping its tracking forcast after receiving only a so-so 'B' CinemaScore. But, heck, it's a minor miracle that this remake is finally releasing since it was trapped for so long in MGM's bankruptcy. Chris Hemsworth wa still an unknown when cast but pic should benefit from his career trajectory into a big action star.

Among holdovers, this will be another great #1 weekend for Summit's Twilight Saga finale Breaking Dawn Part 2 as well as #2 for Eon Productions/MGM/Sony Pictures' James Bond #23 Skyfall (which crossed $200M domestic) and #3 for Steven Spielberg's Lincoln from DreamWorks/Fox/Disney. That biopic continues to find an audience ' amazingly ' in both red and blue states.

The Weinstein Co's Oscar-buzzed Silver Linings Playbook is still on a slow rollout after Harvey changed the release strategy and had difficulty finding available art houses. Its gross went up +162% Friday but its per screen average needs to strengthen. Clearly the pic's R rating puts off Jennifer Lawrence's younger female fans who are still Twilight Saga-obsessed. And Bradley Cooper is by no means a box office sure thing. This adult comedy's playability still has a big question mark.

Fox Searchlight's much anticipated Oscar candidate Hitchcock starring Tony Hopkins and Hellen Mirren opened Friday in 17 theaters, earning $112K with a per screen average of $6,954. Again, I thought the PG13 AFI Fest opener would start stronger. It's expected to platform this weekend to $312K. Shot entirely in LA this past May, this project from Tom Pollock and Ivan Reitman's Montecito Picture Company came to Fox Searchlight with Sacha Gervasi already attached as the director. Pic's classic Hollywood storytelling as well as the performances have merited an awards campaign, but it wasn't helped by Hopkins' recent attack on the whole campaigning process. With both Hopkins and Mirren working in London, now, the studio has been doing satellite Q&As for voters and media alike in advance of Hitchcock's Academy premiere. Fox Searchlight will continue with a platform release over a four-week period, and then head into a limited national release into about 500 theaters for December 14th.

Related: Anthony Hopkins Joins Anti-Awards Campaign Club
Related: 'Hitchcock' Opens AFI Fest, Starts Oscar Talk

Also opening in limited release was Sony Pictures Classics' Rust And Bone in 2 theaters. The R-rated drama made $9K and is expected to end the weekend with $24K.

And finally, Focus Features' holdover Anna Karenina playing in 66 theaters grossed $307K Friday for what should be $807K for the 3-day weekend and $1M for the 5-day holiday. Cume for this R-rated adaptation directed by Joe Wright and starring Keira Knightly should be $1.4M.

Here's the Top 10 based on Friday estimates. I'll update each AM and PM along with a full analysis on Saturday morning. Hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving and check back for refined numbers.

1. Breaking Dawn Part 2 (Summit/Lionsgate) Week 1 [Runs 4,070] PG13
Wednesday $13.3M, Thursday $8.3M, Friday $17.4M (+113%)
3-day Weekend $42.5M, 5-day Holiday $63.5M, Cume $226.4M

2. Skyfall (Eon/MGM/Sony) Week 2 [Runs 3,526] PG13
Wednesday $7.4M, Thursday $7.7M, Friday $14.7M (+92%)
3-Day Weekend $34.5M, 5-Day Holiday $49.6M, Cume $220.2M

3. Lincoln (DreamWorks/Fox/Disney) Week 2 [Runs 2,018] PG13
Wednesday $4.2M, Thursday $4.8M, Friday $9.9M (+104%)
3-Day Weekend $25.2M, 5-Day Holiday $34.2M, Cume $62.3M

4. Rise Of The Guardians 3D (DreamWorks Anim/Par) NEW [Runs 3,653] PG
Wednesday $4.8M, Thursday $3.7M, Friday $9.2M (+149%)
3-day Weekend $22.8M, 5-Day Holiday $31.4M

5. Life Of Pi 3D (Fox) NEW [Runs 2,902] PG
Wednesday $3.6M, Thursday $4.5M, Friday $8.8M (+97%)
3-Day Weekend $22.0M, 5-Day Weekend $30.2M

6. Wreck-It Ralph 3D (Disney) Week 3 [Runs 3,259] PG
Wednesday $3.7M, Thursday $2.5M, Friday $6.7M (+173%)
3-Day Weekend $16.5M, 5-Day Holiday $22.7M, Cume $149.2M

7. Red Dawn (Film District) NEW [Runs 2,679] PG13
Wednesday $4.2M, Thursday $3.2M, Friday $6.0M (+88%)
3-Day Weekend $14.5M, 5-Day Holiday $22.0M

8. Flight (Paramount) Week 3 [Runs 2,638] R
Wednesday $1.2M, Thursday $1.4M, Friday $3.3M (+127%)
3-Day Weekend $8.5M, 5-Day Holiday $11.3M, Cume $74.8M

9. Silver Linings Playbook (Weinstein) NEW [Runs 367] R
Wednesday $661K, Thursday $617K, Friday $1.6M (+162%)
3-Day Weekend $4.3M, 5-Day Holiday $5.6M, Cume $6.1M

10. Argo (Warner Bros) Week 6 [Runs 1,255] R
Wednesday $568K, Thursday $614K, Friday $1.5M (+150%)
3-Day Weekend $4.0M, 5-day Holiday $5.2M, Cume $98.2M

For more estimates listed by title, see box office results here...

Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.

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