FRIDAY: 'Skyfall' Soars To $33M For $88M Weekend In U.S. & Canada As Biggest Bond; Can It Reach $500M Global Thru Sunday? Spielberg's 'Lincoln' Huge In Just 11 Runs

SATURDAY 3:45 AM, 5TH UPDATE: Stay tuned right here for my continuous updates all weekend with domestic box office numbers for MGM/Sony Pictures' R-rated Skyfall iand DreamWorks Studios/Fox/Disney's Lincoln, both of which received great reviews going into Friday. Total moviegoing through Sunday thanks to Skyfall could be $155+M, up +20% from last year. James Bond #23 is looking to open in North America with a $32M Friday and $80+M first weekend. But rival studios think Sony is low-balling ' and that Friday's domestic debut for James Bond #23 is around $33M (including $4.6M from Thursday's IMAX screenings and Friday midnights) and the weekend around $88M. No matter who's right: this is absolutely the biggest-grossing 007 movie ever in the string of films since 1962 ' not adjusted for inflation or higher ticket prices or IMAX premiums ' especially now that it's received a coveted 'A' CinemaScore from audiences. 'Skyfall delivers. Blows away $67.5M on Quantum Of Solace by a lot,' a Sony exec gushes to me. 'Quantum was -4% from Friday on Saturday. Hopefully, Skyfall will use its 'A' Cinemascore to fuel Saturday and push it up even further.' Skyfall's 3,505-run wide release in U.S. and Canada set a new record for the global franchise. I'm still waiting for an updated number from Sony for overseas plays after it opened first overseas October 26th. As of Wednesday, the Sam Mendes-directed, John Logan-scripted, Daniel Craig-starring actioner had taken in $321M internationally But Hollywood now is betting that the worldwide total will be a gargantuan $500+M through Sunday - shaken, not stirred.

DreamWorks Studios/Fox/Disney's PG-13 Lincoln is platforming in just 11 theatres and will build even more Oscar buzz for Steven Spielberg, Daniel Day-Lewis, Tony Kushner, and the rest with its massive opening Fruday. Despite a running time of 2-hours/30-minutes, Lincoln's insiders hoped the biopic could open with an impressive $40K-$50K per screen average for the weekend. But now that number is looking like $75K per screen average for a possible $900K this weekend based on Friday's $260K. 'Off to an incredible start with sold out shows in a number of theatres across the country,' a studio insider tells me. In NYC, 8 of the 14 shows in Union Square sold out. In DC, 7 PM-9 PM shows sold out with scramble to add a 9:20 screening. And in LA, the Arclight's  5 PM, 6:45 PM, 7:30 PM, 8:00 PM, and 9:30 PM shows sold out. I'm told that, on Friday, Lincoln Square reporting $39,248, Union Square $35,032, and 9 more runs still to report. 'A huge opening day,' a studio source gushed. Bodes well for holiday play where Disney has domestic and Twentieth Century Fox has overseas where surprisingly Lincoln movies have heat. Don't believe me? Fox's domestic loser Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter did 66.6% of its business abroad.

As for holdovers, last weekend's #1 Wreck-It Ralph from Walt Disney Animation should hang on for a strong -39% through Sunday, while #2 Paramount's Flight should post a good -44%. Full analysis later.

Here's the Top Ten based on Friday estimates:

1. Skyfall (Eon/MGM/Sony) NEW [Runs 3,505] PG13
Friday $33.0M, Weekend $88.0M

2. Wreck-It Ralph (Disney) Week 2 [Runs 3,752] PG
Friday $7.8M (-42%), Weekend $30.0M (-39%), Cume $90.6M

3. Flight (Paramount) Week 2 [Runs 2,047] R
Friday $4.3M (-47%), Weekend $13.0M (-42%), Cume $46.0M

4. Argo (Warner Bros) Week 5 [Runs 2,763] R
Friday $1.8M, Weekend $6.0M, Cume $85.0M

5. Taken 2 (Fox) Week 6 [Runs 2,487] PG13
Friday $1.2M, Weekend $3.9M, Cume $131.3M

6. The Man With The Iron Fist (Universal) Week 2 [Runs 1,872] R
Friday $825K, Weekend $2.4M (-69%), Cume $12.7

7. Pitch Perfect (Universal) Week 7 [Runs 1,391] PG13
Friday $727K, Weekend $2.3M, Cume $58.8M

8. Cloud Atlas (Warner Bros) Week 3 [Runs 2,023] R
Friday $710K, Weekend $2.4M, Cume $22.7M

9. Here Comes The Boom (Sony) Week 5 [Runs 2,044] PG
Friday $707K, Friday $2.4M, Cume $39.0M

10. Paranormal Activity 4 [Paramount] Week 4 [Runs 2,348] R
Friday $653K, Weekend $1.9M, Cume $52.6M

Back to 007. 'We are off to an amazing start,' Sony told me Friday morning as Skyfall began its roll out in North America. It did $2.2M in Thursday previews that were exclusive to 463 IMAX screens and Premium Large Format theaters. And beginning with Friday midnight shows, it did $2.4M for a combined total of $4.6M. 'The matinee numbers are huge,' one rival studio exec told me by midday. 'Right now the hourlys are very, very strong!' By early evening it was clear that matinees were 'through the roof', including exceptional performance from IMAX theaters now running with their regular schedule. After a 4-year-delay, James Bond #23 is a 3-way co-production among Eon Productions, MGM Studios, and Sony Pictures who all had to wait for MGM's bankruptcy to get Skyfall's sorry financial and ownership state sorted out. Good thing, too, because the 007 franchise is celebrating its 50th anniversary this year (after Dr. No debuted in 1962). It's now also the biggest Bond picture of all time in Britain. Setting records in dozens of overseas territories is a great indicator of how Skyfall will do at the North American box office. It started its IMAX showings Thursday and opens wide in 3,505 theaters today. Hollywood expects Skyfall to top both 2008's Quantum Of Solace and 2006's Casino Royale as the highest-grossing film in the Bond franchise (not adjusted for inflation or higher ticket prices). Quantum Of Solace set a new Bond opening-weekend record with $67.5M but Skyfall could wind up around $75M. All-in domestic estimates for Skyfall in the U.S. and Canada now top $215M ' much more than Quantum Of Solace's $168.3M or Casino Royale's $167.4M. Even better for the studios and filmmakers, Skyfall cost much less than both other films. Also the audience for 007 looks to have expanded: Fandango tells me that 26% of online ticket-buyers for Bond #23 said they only see a 'handful (2 or 3)' of films each year so Skyfall isn't just reaching frequent moviegoers. Going into today, Skyfall was accounting for 58.79% (41.74% for standard screens and 17.05% for IMAX) of all online ticket sales on MovieTickets, and 65% on Fandango.

Meanwhile Fandango surveyed more than 1,000 Skyfall ticket-buyers and found that male moviegoers for the 007 film outnumber female 52%/48%, 54% said Adele's new theme song increased their awareness of the movie, 78% said the grittier action increased their interest in seeing the movie, 39% (the majority) picked Daniel Craig as their favorite Bond while only 35% picked Sean Connery, 47% said it's important for them to see the film in IMAX, 29% picked Goldfinger as their favorite Bond villain/henchman followed by Blofeld (14%) and Jaws (13%). When asked for their favorite elements of the Bond series, 77% of respondents picked the action and stunts, 64% the exotic destinations, 56% picked the cool cars, 54% picked the gadgetry, 52% picked the villains, and 37% picked 'the Bond girls'.

Overseas, Skyfall on Thursday became the UK's all-time highest grossing 007 movie, taking in £57M ($91.2M) in just 12 days and passing The Dark Knight Rises. Quantum Of Solace grossed $586M (£367.4M) worldwide and Casino Royale $594.2M (£372.5M) as the highest-grossing film in the Bond franchise (not adjusted for inflation or higher ticket prices). Skyfall will push past $600M at the very least. Grammy multi-winner Adele sang the Bond theme. Daniel Craig reprises his role as 007 ' the 6th actor to play the art since Ian Fleming's spy novels were made into movies ' with Javier Bardem playing the villain Raoul Silva, and Naomie Harris and Bérénice Marlohe as Bond girls. Mendes was the first Oscar-winner to direct a Bond pic. Meanwhile, Sony, MGM, and Eon are so pleased with Skyfall that its screenwriter John Logan already is writing the next two installments, Bond 24 and 25.

Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.

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