Sunday, July 29, 2012

'Dark Knight Rises' Recovering And Nearing $500M Global And Starting To Set Records; 'The Watch' And 'Step Up Revolution' Weak

SATURDAY PM/SUNDAY AM, 3RD UPDATE: What's normally one of the best box office weekends of the summer fell victim to a lack of must-see pics, the rivalry of the London Olympics opening ceremonies and games, and the awful aftermath of the Colorado theater shooting. (And don't think for a minute that  the Hollywood studios aren't using these excuses as cover') This weekend started out as a downer for North American moviegoing on Friday. Then went up a bit Saturday. (Noted one studio exec, 'It doesn't make as good a story as terror in cinemas, but the box office recovered nicely Saturday from opening night at the Olympics.') And ended with a total $135M, which is still a massive -22% drop from last year. 'Hopefully next week, also one of the best of the summer, everything bounces back,' an exec emailed me. But right now reality bites: both new movies this weekend were so weak they couldn't even crack the low teens in millions of dollars.  Summit Entertainment's PG-13 global dance franchise Step Up Revolution earned a 'B+' from audiences which should have helped word of mouth but didn't, while Twentieth Century Fox's R-rated comedy The Watch with stars Vince Vaughn, Ben Stiller, and Jonah Hill received only a 'C+' so wanna-see will be limited.

But Warner Bros' and Legendary Pictures'  The Dark Knight Rises remained a strong #1 and even jumped +42% from this Friday to Saturday after the London Olympics opening show had aired. TDKR's domestic total of $290M through Sunday is the 3rd highest for a recent movie's first 10 days in release, behind only The Dark Knight ($313.7M) and this early summer Marvel's The Avengers ($373M). It soon will be the 3rd fastest to reach $300M behind the same two pics (not adjusting for inflation or IMAX or higher ticket prices). I'm sure TDKR is on its way to even more records but Warner Bros thinks its inappropriate to boast about them post-Aurora. Nolan's Batman finale has a worldwide cume closing in on half a billion in its first 10 days ' which ain't too shabby given everything that's gone on. This threequel's grosses are still trailing Christopher Nolan's second franchise installment The Dark Knight. Which is to be expected since NRG research showed that 20%-25% of the domestic moviegoing audience was still very hesitant to go this weekend because of the Colorado theater shooting. Besides adding $65M this domestic weekend, The Dark Knight Rises grossed $27.4M in 57 overseas markets for Friday. That brings the international cume to $176.1M after opening in big-ticket countries like Mexico, Brazil, France, Germany, Russia, Japan this weekend. Saturday's and Sunday's overseas tally is still to come today.

Related: 'Dark Knight Rises' Worldwide Total Now $374M: 25% Of Moviegoers Still Very Hesitant This Weekend

Though these two stars made moolah together in the PG-13 Dodgeball more than a decade ago, 2011 ensemble movies starring Vince Vaughn (The Dilemma) and Ben Stiller (Tower Heist) individually underperformed, and that trend continues in 2012 with this latest reteaming. Then again, this pic couldn't catch a break: even before the Colorado killings, Florida's hot button Trayvon Martin-George Zimmerman tragedy necessitated a last-minute name change after the neighborhood watch image became no laughing matter. ('Obviously that situation is a horrible event in its own right,' a Fox exec told me, 'but this movie is a broad comedy that bears no relation to that tragedy, other than originally having the title, Neighborhood Watch. That was a funny title that conveyed the movie. Until Zimmerman came on the scene. Then it was not funny at all any more. Now that people have seen the film, it's clear there is no connection, but we were sensitive to any perceived link.') The studio also pulled the pic's promotional materials and sanitized its trailers after both events. Right before release, the Harkins Theatre chain pulled about 29 venues at the last minute when it couldn't agree on financial terms with Fox. And don't forget that star-driven movies for the most part are sucking the big one this summer so the studio didn't expect more than a $15M opening ' and didn't get one. Fox claims The Watch which was shot in Atlanta cost $68 million. Publicity was straightforward with the guys primarily making appearances on talks shows and doing other TV press. Pic was produced by Shawn Levy and directed by Akiva Schaffer, with the credited screenwriters Jared Stern and Seth Rogen & Evan Goldberg.

As for  Miami-set Step Up Revolution, that too was projected downward by the studio ' and not just because of the absence of Channing Tatum's 8-pack abs. Summit met, discussed, but left in the film an Aurora-offensive scene where the dancers steal into a party wearing body vests and gas masks and use gas grenades to threaten the guests. (It was the media talk on Twitter after the press screenings.) Summit did remove TV ads showcasing the scene, and isn't rotating a trailer using the scene, either. Note this franchise does more biz overseas then domestic. (The second installment internationally grossed close to double its cumulative domestic take, and the third film cumulatively grossed nearly triple abroad compared to North American business.) Here in North America, of its 2,567 theaters, about 90% this weekend will present this fourth film in 3D. Summit has taken the reins from Disney on both the domestic and international release of the film. (The previous 3 installments were distributed domestically by Disney, while Summit has always overseen international distribution). The film's budget is $33 million with the studio possessing very limited exposure due to robust foreign pre-sales. Marketing was aimed at tween/teen girls, but also Latinos and African-Americans with TV spots on 21 cable channels including Univision, Telemundo and BET. Small screen media was compressed into the last 2 weeks prior to opening, with almost half running after The Dark Knight Rises opened. A Step Up marathon on ABC Family showcased the previous three films. And not only did the soundtrack debut this week on Interscope Records, but a music video by Jennifer Lopez featuring Flo Rida launched globally on MTV, and a video by Timbaland featuring Ne-Yo had heavy support from VEVO. The film's dancers and choreographers did extensive touring, performing flash mobs, and participating in press days in the top 20 markets. Directed by Scott Speer from credited screenwriters Jenny Mayer and Duane Adler, the film was produced by former Summit-only execs Erik Feig and Patrick Wachsberger as well as Adam Shankman.

Here's the Top Ten based on weekend estimates:

1. The Dark Knight Rises (Legendary/Warner Bros) Week 2 [4,404 Runs] PG13
Friday $18.0M, Saturday $25.6M, Weekend $65.0M (-59%), Cume $290.0M

2. The Watch (Fox) NEW 3,168 Runs) R
Friday $4.5M, Saturday $4.9M, Weekend $13.3M

3. Ice Age 4 3D (Fox) Week 3 [3,869 Runs) PG
Friday $4.1M, Saturday $5.2M, Weekend $13.2M, Cume $114.8M

4. Step Up Revolution 3D (Summit/Lionsgate) NEW [2,567 Runs) PG13
Friday $5.0M, Saturday 3.9M, Weekend $11.8M

5. Ted (Universal) Week 5 [3,129 Runs) R
Friday $2.1M, Saturday $3.0M, Weekend $7.4M, Cume $193.7M

6. The Amazing Spider-Man 3D (Col/Sony) Week 4 [3,160 Run]
Friday $1.8M, Saturday $2.9M, Weekend $7.0M, Cume $242.2M

7. Brave 3D (Pixar/Disney) Week 6 [2,551 Runs] PG
Friday $1.2M, Weekend $3.7M, Cume $216.7M

8. Magic Mike (Warner Bros) Week 5 [2,075 Runs] R
Friday $800K, Weekend $2.2M, Cume $107.2M

9. Savages (Universal) Week 4 [1,414 Runs] R
Friday $480K, Weekend $1.5M, Cume $43.6M

10. Madea's Witness Protection (TPerry/Lionsgate) Week 5 [1,111 Runs] PG13
Friday $400K, Weekend $1.2M, Cume $62.6M

Related: Harkins Theatres Won't Play 'The Watch' After No Financial Agreement With Fox

Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.



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