SATURDAY 1:30 AM UPDATE: Thankfully only one major studio movie is releasing this weekend. Because there was more trouble between Rentrak and big theater chain AMC Friday which is why North American box office is coming to you later than usual. In exhibition-speak, Rentrak is still populating AMC grosses due to feed deficiencies that affect the outcome. In Hollywood-speak, Fox's Scrat has more than earned his acorn. And in normal English, it's very possible these numbers could jump higher by later Saturday morning. 
But right now my sources say this Twentieth Century Fox Animation and Blue Sky Studios and Vanessa Morrison toon Ice Age 4: Continental Drift opened at $15.3M Friday ' which is a lower stat than rival studios peg it. And $42M for the weekend ' which again is lower than rival studios peg it at $48M. That's from 3,879 theaters, of which 2,731 are 3D. With an 'A-' CinemaScore overall (and an 'A' with the under-18 audience) IA4 'should be chillin' at the box office for the remainder of the summer,' gushes a Fox exec. But a little movie called The Dark Knight Rises will suck all the air out of the box office next weekend just like The Avengers did in May.
True, there's $240M in IA4 grosses already from overseas. But domestically, there's a lot less than the previous films in the series. (For instance, 2D installment IA: The Meltdown made a $68M debut opening on a Friday.) But IA4 is also being released on the heels of family fare Brave and Madagascar 3. This is only the second significant animated franchise to reach a fourth installment following the Shrek series, and until now each subsequent chapter for Ice Age has been more successful than the previous one. (2009's IA: Dawn of the Dinosaurs set an international foreign animated record.) Some reviews pointed out how IA: Continental Drift didn't stand out creatively from the other installments beyond the attempt to be younger and hipper with cast additions like Jennifer Lopez, Nicki Minaj, and Drake. (I find just hearing Ray Romano's nasal voice makes my skin crawl')
Sony's successful The Amazing Spider-Man 3D reboot should come in at around $9.8M today and maybe as high as $10M, which would be a good -51% compared to last Friday. The Weekend should improve each day on the drop and end up with $32M and a cume of around $197M domestic. On Tuesday, a week after opening, Spidey hit $400M worldwide and Sony is confident it will end up at $800M. (Interesting how Spidey or Scrat were either #1 or #2 in international theaters country by country last weekend.) There's no doubt this franchise restart with another origins story for Marvel's most popular character is a success, even if it didn't break box office records or reinvent the genre or even please fanboys. So Sony Pictures Entertainment chairman Amy Pascal and vice chairman Jeff Blake deserve kudos for taking a risk.
Here's the rest of the Top Ten ranked according to Friday estimates:
1. Ice Age 4 3D (Blue Sky/Fox) NEW [3,879 Theaters] PG
Friday $15.3M, Weekend $42M
2. Amazing Spider-Man 3D (Col/Sony) Week 2 [4,318 Theaters] PG13
Friday $9.8M, Weekend $32M, Cume $197M
3. Ted (Universal) Week 3 [3,303 Theaters] R
Friday $6.6M, Weekend $20.3M, Cume $156.3M
4. Brave 3D (Pixar/Disney) Week 4 [3,392 Theaters] PG
Friday $3.4M, Weekend $11.2M, Cume $195.4M
5. Magic Mike (Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,090 Theaters] R
Friday $3.1M, Weekend $8.5M, Cume $91.5M
6. Savages (Universal) Week 2 [2,635 Theaters] R
Friday $2.6M (-53%), Weekend $8.2M, Cume $30.5M
7. Madea's Witness Protection (TPerry/Lgate) Week 3 [2,004 Theaters]
Friday $1.8M, Weekend $5.4M, Cume $55.4M
8. Katy Perry 3D (Insurge/Paramount) Week 2 [2,732 Theaters] PG
Friday $1.4M (-48%), Weekend $4.0M, Cume $18.8M
9. Madasgascar 3 3D (DWA/Par) Week 6 [2,285 Theaters] PG
Friday $1.0M, Weekend $3.4M, Cume $203.6M
10. Moonrise Kingdom (Focus Features) Week 7 [924 Theaters] PG13
Friday $965KM, Weekend $3.2M, Cume $32.0M
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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