SATURDAY AM, 2ND UPDATE: (Top Ten below) This is looking like another big weekend as domestic box office turns the corner on the holiday grosses ' $135M total moviegoing, or +20% over last year. My sources said Thursday late shows and Friday midnights were a really big $4.5M for Paramount's R-rated hit Halloween franchise which will come in an easy #1 through Sunday. Paranormal Activity 4 (3,412 theaters) will scare up around $15M Friday for a $34M weekend. That's less than Hollywood estimates for the Jason Blum pic, and less than PA2's hefty debut of $40.7M and way less than PA3's even huger release of $52.6M. It only received a 'C' CinemaScore from audiences which wiill hurt word of mouth. Overseas, insiders tell me that early international grosses from Thursday openings in Australia and Germany were higher than PA2 or PA3. Paranormal Activity 4 opened day and date in 33 markets outside of the U.S. and could grab $60M worldwide. 'Great results for a franchise that has stayed true to its roots and its microbudgeted approach!,' an exec gushes. The franchise has been kept on a tight budget and the back end deals have not been changed. What began as a $70,000 sleeper still costs only $5M now. Overall, the three Paranormal Activity installments have earned over $576 million worldwide on a combined budget of a little over $8M. Yowza! MovieTickets reports that its domestic box office advance ticket sales for Paranormal Activity 4 accounted for over 65% of all transactions for Thursday. And nearly 7% of yesterday's total sales came from moviegoers who want to see the film in IMAX. By the way, this is Paramount's first fictional live-action nationwide release since The Dictator in May. That's because the studio pushed off this summer's scheduled release of G.I. Joe 2 to 2013 in order to revamp the pic.
Related: Big Problems Behind G.I. Joe 2's Big Delay
Meanwhile QED International's small budget Alex Cross (2,539 theaters) based on best-selling author James Patterson's crime novel I Alex Cross and starring Tyler Perry also is opening lower than Hollywood estimates. It should make $4.5M Friday and around $13M for the weekend with Summit Entertainment distributing in the U.S. and Alliance in Canada. Everyone was confident enough of a $20M weekend that QED, Patterson, and Perry have a sequel deal already coming together: Patterson's crime novel Double Cross as a 2nd movie starring Perry as the famous Washington DC crimefighter/psychologist. But the critics have been harsh on helmer Rob Cohen and the film as a whole ' only 12% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes (and 0% among top critics). Didn't matter: audiences gave Alex Cross a 'A' CinemaScore which should help word of mouth. Alex Cross is Perry's first lead role that he didn't produce or direct or write and his first turn in one of the juiciest roles for a black actor (following Morgan Freeman) ' and unexpected for the star of the crossdressing Madea movies. QED International's Bill Block put together the pic at a cost of only $25M (lowered to $23M with filming tax subsidies). He chased down the book rights from Patterson for under $1 million, then hired Marc Moss and Kerry Williamson to pen the screenplay with Patterson. Then Block and Patterson sought out Tyler's WME agent Charles King. After meetings in Atlanta, QED signed Perry for $5M upfront. Amazingly, Perry didn't want to write, direct or produce the movie. He didn't even want to move the location to his home base in Georgia for all his creature comforts. And he had the leverage, too. Instead Perry wanted QED to run the project so he could focus solely on his acting. Maybe next time Perry should direct, too.
Meanwhile, Ben Affleck's Oscar-buzzed Argo for Warner Bros had a spectacular hold from its opening a week ago.
Here's the Top Ten based on Friday estimates. Fuller analysis coming:
1. Paranormal Activity 4 (Paramount) NEW [3,412 Runs] R
Friday $15.0M, Weekend $34.0M
2. Argo (Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,247 Runs] R
Friday $5.5M (-8%), Weekend $19.0M, Cume $45.5M
3. Alex Cross (Summit/Lionsgate) NEW [2,539 Runs] PG13
Friday $4.5M, Weekend $13.0M
4. Taken 2 (Fox) Week 3 [3,489 Runs] PG13
Friday $4.3M, Weekend $13.5M, Cume $106.1M
5. Hotel Transylvania (Sony) Week 4 [3,384 Runs] PG
Friday $3.8M, Weekend $15.5M, Cume $123.0M
6. Sinister (Summit/Lionsgate) Week 2 [2,542 Runs] R
Friday $3.1M (-58%), Weekend $8.7M, Cume $31.6M
7. Here Comes The Boom (Sony) Week 2 [3,014 Runs] PG
Friday $2.8M (-22%), Weekend $9.5M, Cume $24.2M
8. Pitch Perfect (Universal) Week 4 [2,660 Runs] PG13
Friday $2.3M, Weekend $7.0M, Cume $45.8M
9. Frankenweenie (Disney) Week 3 [2,362 Runs] PG
Friday $1.4M, Weekend $5.5M, Cume $29.4M
10. Looper (FilmDistrict/Sony) Week 4 [2,223 Runs] R
Friday $1.2M, Weekend $4.2M, Cume $57.8M
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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