Weak Weekend Box Office Pre-Uberstorm: 'Argo' #1, 'Cloud Atlas' Low Grossing #2; 'Silent Hill' Edged By 'Paranormal Activity 4'

SATURDAY AM, 4TH UPDATE: This will be a lame weekend for newcomers at the domestic box office after a string of strong weekends - maybe only $95M split in a lot of ways, which is -10% down from last year. The question mark is Hurricane Sandy's impact on grosses even though it's just beginning to move up the Eastern Seaboard. 'Nothing called Frankenstorm is inviting people to go out of their houses,' rued one movie executive predicting 25% less grosses than forecast for this weekend. 'It looks like people are shopping for bottled water and putting up their storm shutters instead of going to the movies.' Hour by hour Friday night, estimates dropped for weekend box office depending on whether the storm hits the most populated areas Sunday or Monday. 'OK, people ' let's step away from The Weather Channel and go to a theater on Saturday!!!' one studio exec implored by email. We'll see soon enough.

Interestingly, the top 4 films are all R-rated  Ben Affleck's Oscar-buzzed holdover Argo (2,855 theaters) won Friday with $3.9M and looks like it will win the weekend with anywhere between $12M-$13.2M. But that's still the 2nd lowest #1 of the year. The next trio of pics are bunched together in the $8.8M-$9.5M range. The Wachowskis' epic drama Cloud Atlas (2,008 theaters, including 105 IMAX screens) starring Tom Hanks and Halle Berry received a mountain of pre-release press. It should be #2 this weekend, moving up from today's #3, even with only a 'C' CinemaScore from audiences. Problem is, pic cost $100+M. Even with #1 and #2 at the box office, Warner Bros has no bragging rights.

Open Road Films' Halloween horror opener Silent Hill: Revelation 3D (2,933 theaters) debuted #2 but should fall a notch or two by the weekend with the worst CinemaScore of all the newcomers: a 'C'. It will be edged out by Paramount's Halloween holdover Paranormal Activity 4. Rounding out the Top 5 will be still another Fright Night holdover, Sony Animation's Hotel Transylvania. The other newcomers fell apart: Paramount's small Victoria Justice teen comedy Fun Size debuted #11th with a CinemaScore of 'B'. While the Gerard Butler surfing newcomer Chasing Mavericks from Walden Media and distributed by Fox arrived only 12th. Shame because it had the best CinemaScore of the bunch ' 'B+'.

Here's the Top Ten based on Friday estimates. Full analysis later:

1. Argo (Warner Bros) Week 3 [Runs 2,855] R
Friday $3.9M (-22%), Weekend $13.2M, Cume $61.7M

2. Silent Hill: Revelation 3D (Open Road) New [Runs 2,933] R
Friday $3.5M, Weekend $9.4M, Cume $10.4M

3. Cloud Atlas (Warner Bros) Warner Bros NEW [Runs 2,008] R
Friday $3.4M, Weekend $10.2M

4. Paranormal Activity 4 (Paramount) Week 2 [Runs 3,412] R
Friday $3.1M (-79%), Weekend $9.1M, Cume $43.0M

5. Taken 2 (Fox) Week 4 [Runs 2,995] PG13
Friday $2.6M, Weekend $8.2M, Cume $117.6M

6. Hotel Transylvania (Sony Animation) Week 5 [Runs 3,276] PG
Friday $2.5M, Weekend $9.1M, Cume $130.1M

7. Sinister (Summit/Lionsgate) Week 3 [Runs 2,347] R
Friday $1.7M, Weekend $5.2M, Cume $39.7M

8. Alex Cross (Summit/Lionsgate) Week 2 [Runs 2,541] PG13
Friday $1.7M (-58%), Weekend $5.4M, Cume $19.8M

9. Here Comes The Boom (Sony) Week 3 [Runs 2,491] PG
Friday $1.6M, Weekend $5.2M, Cume $30.4M

10. Pitch Perfect (Universal) Week 5 [Runs 1,999]
Friday $1.3M, Weekend $4.2M, Cume $51.6M

11. Fun Size (Paramount) NEW [Runs 3,014] PG13
Friday $1.3M, Weekend $4.0M

12. Chasing Mavericks (Walden/Fox) NEW [Runs 2,002] PG
Friday $825K, Weekend $2.5M

Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.