SATURDAY AM, 3RD UPDATE: Welcome to an incredibly crowded domestic box office with five films opening in wide release. And it's not even a holiday weekend. I just don't get the distribution crush, especially with so much sports on TV (college and NFL football, baseball playoffs). Nevertheless, expect another major-league grossing weekend: $120M which is up a whopping +45% from last year. Friday's order of finish was up-ended when Summit Entertainment's Sinister came on very strong during late shows. The horror pic (2,527 theaters) went into this weekend as the top-selling film online at Fandango and Movie Tickets with 25%-30% of all tickets. Then it started out better than expected with $1 million from Thursday's late shows and Friday midnights in 1,494 locations. Unfortunately, audiences gave it only a 'C+' CinemaScore which could hurt box office on Saturday. Which is why it could fall to 3rd or 4th place with $17.5M by end of Sunday.
Twentieth Century Fox's popcorn action holdover Taken 2 (3,706 theaters) finished #2 Friday but should end up an easy #1 for the second straight weekend with $22.7M.
Following in #2 this weekend should be yet another critically acclaimed and Oscar buzzed Ben Affleck R-rated film for Warner Bros. Argo (3,232 theaters) opened Friday #3 but logged a rare 'A+' CinemaScore from audiences which should promote great word of mouth. Now the question is whether it can beat $18M this weekend because exhibition is telling me it was playing 'very old'. But Affleck's true story of the 'Canadian Caper' covert operation to rescue 6 Americans during the 1979-1980 Iran hostage crisis should have legs: his last caper film The Town kept widening its audience week after week.
Sony Animation's blockbuster toon Hotel Transylvania (3,375 theaters) will scare up another strong weekend by holding -32% from a week ago. It could move up to #3 or #2 for the weekend with $19M.
That pushes down Sony's Kevin James new comedy Here Comes The Boom (3,014 theaters) to 5th place with $11.9M for the weekend. Though that's a lousy per screen average for the likeable James and Adam Sandler's Happy Madison banner, audiences gave the family fare laugher a surprisingly good 'A' CinemaScore which should help word of mouth. Let's see how its box office mojo fares this weekend.
Playing is half as many locations, CBS Films' well reviewed R-rated Seven Psychopaths is looking at a gross of $4.1M for the weekend ' good enough for #9. There's still a good chance the film may find a bigger audience.
And finally the public shrugged at Atlas Shrugged Part 2 (1,012 theaters). Serious drama to Ayn Rand accolytes, hilarious comedy to the rest of us, it should open with $1.9M and #10 for the weekend.
Here's the Top Ten based on Friday estimates. Fuller analysis coming:
1. Sinister (Summit/Lionsgate) NEW [2,527 Runs] R
Friday $7.4M, Weekend $17.5M
2. Taken 2 (Fox) Week 2 [3,706 Runs] PG13
Friday $7.0M (-62%), Weekend $23.0M, Cume $87.0M
3. Argo (Warner Bros) NEW [3,232 Runs] R
Friday $5.9M, Weekend $18.0M
4. Hotel Transylvania (Sony Animation) Week 3 [3,375 Runs] PG
Friday $4.2M, Weekend $19.0M, Cume $104.0M
5. Here Comes The Boom (Sony) NEW [3,014 Runs] PG
Friday $3.6M, Weekend $11.9M
6. Pitch Perfect (Universal) Week 3 [2,787 Runs] PG13
Friday $3.0M, Weekend $9.2M, Cume $35.9M
7. Looper (FilmDistrict/Sony) Week 3 [2,605 Runs] R
Friday $1.8M, Weekend $6.4M, Cume $51.6M
8. Frankenweenie (Disney) Week 2 [3,005 Runs] PG
Friday $1.7M, Weekend $6.3M, Cume $21.4M
9. Seven Psychopaths (CBS Films) NEW [1,480 Runs] R
Friday $1.3M, Weekend $4.1M
10. Atlas Shrugged Part 2 (Atlas) NEW [1,012 Runs] PG13
Friday $691K, Weekend $1.9M
Editor-in-Chief Nikki Finke - tip her here.
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